Zimbabwe faces dry farming season after 27.9% agricultural growth

The warning puts food production and rural incomes at risk. In his September State of the Nation Address, President Emmerson Mnangagwa cited agricultural growth of 27.9%, contributing 2.2 percentage points to national economic growth of 8.3%.

Voice of Nigeria’s report of the address identified those figures as the 2025 outturn. On those numbers, agriculture accounted for about 27% of overall growth, slightly more than a quarter. That is its contribution to growth, not its share of the entire economy.

What the rainfall forecast says

The Meteorological Services Department’s outlook anticipates below-normal rainfall across Zimbabwe between October and December 2026, alongside warmer-than-normal conditions.

For January to March 2027, southern and western areas are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall, while the rest of the country faces a below-normal outlook.

The department links the forecast to El Niño conditions and warns that the season could begin erratically. Its outlook describes increased risks, rather than a guarantee that every district will experience the same conditions.

The regional forecast from the SADC Climate Services Centre also favours below-normal rainfall across much of central and southern Africa. It advises users to follow updated monthly and shorter-range forecasts as the season develops.

For Zimbabwean farmers, the distinction matters: a seasonal outlook helps with preparation, while more local and short-term information is needed as planting approaches. The meteorological department says it will continue issuing daily and 10-day forecasts.

What the drought response includes

Government’s six-pillar response covers grain reserves, climate-smart production, financing, livestock protection, imports, and coordination supported by early-warning systems.

An October Cabinet briefing, reproduced by The Herald, sets a target of building a dedicated 600,000-tonne strategic grain reserve by October 2027. This is a future target, not confirmation that the grain is already in storage.

The same briefing says more than 112,000 hectares had been identified for irrigated maize. Identifying land does not establish that all of it has been planted or supplied with working irrigation.

Agriculture permanent secretary Obert Jiri has also outlined plans to bring together banks, contractors and other agricultural financiers. In remarks reported by The Herald in September, he urged farmers to conserve moisture and assess available livestock feed and water.

The risks extend beyond the harvest. In its September assessment, food-security monitoring network FEWS NET warned that weaker household incomes and high staple prices were already restricting food access in deficit-producing areas.

The coming season will therefore test both farm production and the measures intended to protect households when their own food stocks run short.